results from the seventh round of the High-Frequency Phone Survey

results from the seventh round of the High-Frequency Phone Survey

Photo: ROMEDIA/Shutterstock The Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) proceeds to observe the affect of COVID-19

An African school child with colorful pattern print facemask.
Photo: ROMEDIA/Shutterstock

The Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) proceeds to observe the affect of COVID-19 on the socio-economic wellbeing of the countrywide population through the Uganda Superior-Frequency Cellular phone Survey (UHFPS). The funding for data collection and specialized help has been offered by the Planet Financial institution and the United States Company for Intercontinental Growth (USAID). The survey recontacts households that experienced mobile phone figures for at the very least one household member or a reference unique from the Uganda Countrywide Panel Survey (UNPS) 2019/20. The 1st round of the study was conducted in June 2020, even though the hottest seventh spherical was conducted in Oct/November 2021 immediately after the second lockdown was released in June 2021. This web site highlights selected results on the economic impacts of the COVID-19 similar actions from the hottest spherical. Exactly where possible we also assess the impacts from two diverse lockdowns released in March 2020 and June 2021 by making use of the data from rounds 1 and 7 carried out soon after the lockdowns.

The very first most vital indicator we appeared at was work. Work rates amongst respondents dropped from 92% in March/April 2021 to 81% in October/November 2021, slipping below the pre-March 2020 level made use of as a pre-pandemic baseline range (87%).  This is most likely due, at the very least in component, to the financial implications of the lockdown imposed in June 2021 throughout the 2nd COVID-19 wave. Nevertheless, this drop was a lot less pronounced relative to the drop in June 2020 soon after the initial lockdown in June 2020 (figure 1). The incidence of get the job done stoppages reported in Oct/November 2021 have been also more universally dispersed when compared to June 2020 when operate stoppages concentrated in urban places and in the providers sector. As proven in figure 2, most work stoppages following the first lockdown were being in non-agriculture sectors, though additional than 50% of work stoppages soon after the 2nd lockdown occurred in the agriculture sector. We have also found that work stoppages in Oct/November 2021 have been to a considerably less extent associated with COVID-19 associated limitations as opposed to stoppages in June 2020. It might be associated to the strictness of the to start with lockdown which was shorter, but tighter than the second a single. In addition, increased work stoppages in the agricultural sector can be connected to seasonality and prolonged dry spells noticed in diverse areas of the nation in 2021.  
 

Figure 1. Respondents functioning in the course of very last 7 days throughout rounds, % of all respondents

Figure 1. Respondents working during last seven days across rounds
Supply: UHFPS, authors’ calculations
Observe: Figures are based on the very same respondents throughout rounds.

Figure 2. Get the job done stoppages by economic sector, % of respondents who stopped doing the job

Figure 2. Work stoppages by economic sector, % of respondents who stopped working
Supply: UHFPS, authors’ calculations
Be aware: Figures are centered on the same respondents across rounds.

Non-farm loved ones enterprise closures ended up a lot less recurrent in October/November 2021, but pretty much two-thirds of firms described less earnings compared to the former spherical in March/April 2021.  As shown in figure 3, the share of homes with non-farm family members corporations that have been open declined from 43% to 41%, reversing the optimistic development observed in prior rounds. The magnitude of closures was considerably lesser than in June 2020 right after the 1st lockdown. Nevertheless, lots of working companies reported much less revenues in October/November 2021 in contrast to the former round (determine 4). Particularly, spouse and children organization revenues were decrease for 65% of homes compared to revenues in March/April 2021. Earnings losses were especially pronounced in enterprises functioning in the services sectors.
 

Determine 3. Standing of non-farm spouse and children business across rounds, % of households

Figure 3. Status of non-farm family business across rounds, % of households
Supply: UHFPS, authors’ calculations
Take note: Figures are centered on the similar respondents across rounds.

 

Figure 4. Household non-farm businesses reporting a lot less revenues compared to former round, % of homes with loved ones non-farm organizations

Figure 4. Family non-farm businesses reporting less revenues compared to previous round,
Resource: UHFPS, authors’ calculations
Note: Figures are based on the same respondents across rounds.

Regular with the negative trends observed in the labor marketplace in Oct/November 2021, meals stability in Uganda deteriorated notably in this interval as nicely. Figure 5 provides the dynamics of the Food Insecurity Knowledge Scale (FIES) indices across distinctive rounds of the UHFPS. Soon after a very long interval of reasonably small food items insecurity among September/Oct 2020 and March/ April 2021, the problem has substantially transformed in recent months.

Food insecurity greater radically in October/November 2021 in all locations, with virtually half of households reporting that their spouse and children users ended up reasonably insecure and 12% reporting household customers remaining severely food items insecure at the nationwide degree.

In the initial spherical of the UHFPS, food stuff protection was calculated only for adult customers of the home. Comparable FIES indices were being created for the seventh round. It turns out that food insecurity was increased in October/November 2021 compared to June 2020. This could be relevant to greater operate stoppages in the agriculture sector and rural areas linked with floods and dry spells recorded in the next season of 2020 and the initially period of 2021.
 

Figure 5. Evolution of extreme and average composite FIES index across all rounds, % of domestic customers

Figure 5. Evolution of severe and moderate composite FIES index across all rounds, % of household members
Supply: UHFPS, authors’ calculations
Take note: Figures are dependent on the same homes throughout rounds.

If you are fascinated to master far more about findings from the seventh spherical of the UHFPS you should verify the transient in this article, although the microdata and relevant documentation are freely available at the Planet Bank’s Microdata Catalog right here.

 

The customers of the staff operating on the Uganda Higher-Frequency Cellular phone Study on COVID-19 (shown in alphabetical get for each and every institution) are: UBOS: Henry Mubiru, Andrew Mupere, Vincent Ssennono World Bank: Aziz Atamanov (Poverty and Fairness GP), Frederic Cochinard (LSMS), John Ilukor (LSMS), Talip Kilic (LSMS), and Giulia Ponzini (LSMS).